Terna’s scenarios

At the national level, in July 2024 the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security (MASE) published the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), which translates the 2030 targets of the European Fit for 55 legislative package into the Italian context. The PNIEC plays a crucial role in outlining possible development trajectories of the national energy system, providing a strategic basis for planning investments and infrastructure necessary for the energy transition.

Working with Snam, the gas transmission network operator, every two years Terna submits the Scenario Description Document²⁸ (SDD) with the aim of outlining medium- and long-term national energy scenarios. This document is preparatory to the network development plans of both sectors. Collaboration between Terna and Snam in drawing up the SDD enables the two operators to combine their specific expertise, in the knowledge that interaction between the electricity and gas scenarios is an extremely complex element at both national and EU level.

The latest SDD, published on 1st October 2024, forms the basis for the definition of Terna’s 2025 Development Plan and is aligned with the policy scenario in the PNIEC.

Consistent with ARERA’s indications and the PNIEC and ENTSO scenarios²⁹, Terna and Snam have developed:

• Scenarios achieving policy targets:
  – to 2030 a PNIEC Policy scenario (consistent with the 2024 PNIEC);
  – for 2035 and 2040 two scenarios, Global Ambition Italy (GA-IT) and Distributed Energy Italy (DE-IT), in line with those developed at European level by the ENTSOs.
• Contrasting scenarios (developed in order to assess the impact of planned infrastructure on different scenarios as required by current regulation):
  – to 2030, 2035 and 2040 a PNIEC Slow scenario, representing a slower transition (compared to policy scenarios) towards decarbonisation targets.

The GA-IT and DE-IT scenarios are to be considered development scenarios both aligned with the storylines in the scenarios drawn up by the ENTSOs, Global Ambition and Distributed Energy, which set out alternative paths consistent with the goal of achieving a net zero system by 2050.

The PNIEC policy scenario has a particular role to play, not only because it delivers on the policy goals for 2030, but above all because it assumes an efficient mix of investments in grid infrastructure, renewable sources, storage and new digital technologies compatible the main technical, economic and administrative restrictions that could otherwise compromise its feasibility in such a tight time frame. The scenario indicates the need:

• develop 107 GW of new wind and solar capacity by 2030 compared to the 50 GW installed in 2024. This capacity will make it possible to reach 63% penetration of the share of RES’s in the electricity demand in 2030, in line with what was envisaged in the 2024 PNIEC;
• create almost 50 GWh of new utility-scale storage by 2030, as well as develop adequate transport capacity, to guarantee the full integration of the electricity produced from renewable sources within Italy’s electricity system.

In this context, Terna is involved in the energy transition process on several fronts, first and foremost in the development of the electricity grid (Terna’s 2024-2028 Industrial Plan Update approved in March 2025 envisages total investments of €17.7 billion to accelerate the country’s commitment to the energy transition, energy independence and decarbonisation). Moreover, Terna also drew up the MACSE (Mechanism for the Provisioning of Electric Storage Capacity), the financial instrument that will enable the system to acquire new electricity storage capacity, thus ensuring the integration of increasingly large shares of renewable energy into the electricity system. Both the grid and storage facilities will play a key part not only in achieving decarbonisation targets, but also in improving security of supply.

At the same time, from the point of view of market design, it is necessary to continue decisively along the path already initiated by Italy of progressively supporting spot markets with market instruments based on futures contracts. Specifically, Contracts for Difference (CfDs), envisaged in the RES-X decree to promote the construction of new renewable plants, will make it possible to hedge the commercial risk of gas, which has significantly impacted household and business bills over the past three years.